US 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges Past 4.8%, Mortgage Rates Hit 7.5%
Long-end Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2023 as strong economic data and persistent inflation reduce expectations for Fed easing.
Marcus Chen
Macro Strategist
The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.83% on Wednesday, its highest close since October 2023, as a series of strong economic data releases forced markets to price out rate cuts and confront the "higher for longer" reality.
The 30-year mortgage rate, as tracked by Freddie Mac, touched 7.52% — a level that has effectively frozen the housing market for many prospective buyers. Existing home sales have fallen to a 29-year low as affordability constraints bite.
Yield curve snapshot:
- 2-year: 4.24% (+12bps week)
- 5-year: 4.45% (+10bps week)
- 10-year: 4.83% (+8bps week)
- 30-year: 5.02% (+5bps week)
The move in yields has been driven by several factors: the blowout January payrolls report, sticky inflation readings, and the Treasury Department's growing issuance needs as budget deficits remain elevated at approximately $1.8 trillion annually.
Real yields (TIPS) have also risen sharply, with the 10-year real yield at 2.35% — a level that historically puts meaningful pressure on equity valuations, particularly for growth and technology stocks.
"At these yield levels, Treasuries are competing directly with equities for investor capital," noted Marcus Chen. "The 60/40 portfolio is back, but this time bonds are the attraction."